Stability and correctness after 0.4.0: unknown window states are no longer
read as closed; learned coefficients are reset selectively when the
configuration they were learned under changes; plans are discarded when an
input changed during optimization, and an overtaken run never publishes;
model accuracy (Model Error) is separated from the accuracy of published
forecasts (new Forecast Error sensor). Base coefficients report confidence;
sensor weights are labelled in the zone form. Still observation-only.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
README: window unknown states, what configuration changes do to the learned
model, inputs_changed tolerances, coefficient confidence, model_changes, and
Model Error vs Forecast Error. docs/MODEL.md: configuration-change table,
confidence semantics, both validation modes. CHANGELOG gains an Unreleased
section (version unchanged); AUDIT and ROADMAP record findings, evidence and
remaining risks.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Zones, electrical heat sources, windows with ventilation, wind exposure
and recovery, and exchange between adjacent zones, all observational.
docs/MODEL.md documents the equations, units, coefficient meanings,
priors and bounds, learning conditions, forecast assumptions, validation
method and results, and limitations. README gains a configuration guide
for zones, heat sources and windows, the new diagnostics and the
accuracy comparison against the base model. CHANGELOG has upgrade notes
(config entry version 3, rollback needs the backup, renamed Status
attributes). ROADMAP marks the Milestone 2 items now covered; AUDIT
records the design decisions and evidence. AGENTS.md lists the new
modules and the convention that new model terms start at zero and must
beat the base model out of sample before being relied on.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
First part of Milestone 1: Forecast Error sensors scoring the thermal
model against reality, forecast trajectories, Learning Progress and Last
Sample sensors, rejected-sample and poll-outcome counters, plus lint
and rollback-contract tests. README explains forecast accuracy, the
30-minute learning wait after a restart and where Developer Tools now
lives. ROADMAP marks the items now backed by tests; AUDIT records the
evaluation design and evidence. Still observation-only.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
There was no evidence of how accurate the thermal model is: the only
number was an in-sample 5-minute error.
At every poll, record each room's reading, the outdoor temperature, the
radiator-lag estimate and the model parameters. 15, 30, 60 and 120
minutes later, replay the room from that poll with the parameters it
had then (out of sample), the outdoor temperature held constant and the
radiator lag that actually followed from the relay's real history, and
compare with the reading now. A no-change forecast is scored alongside.
Only spans with regular polls and a well-known lag are scored. 7 days
of per-room statistics are saved with the model (optional "evaluation"
payload key; about 18 KB at most).
Four new sensors, Heating MPC Forecast Error 15/30/60/120 min, show the
mean absolute error with bias, persistence error, skill and per-room
detail. On the synthetic lagged plant the 60-minute error is 0.03 °C
against 0.39 °C for persistence.
Room forecast entities gain forecast_15min and plan_15min attributes
and are labelled counterfactual. Volatile attributes are unrecorded.
The model is now saved after scoring, so saved statistics are current.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Home Assistant 2026.3+ shows custom integrations' own brand images from
custom_components/<domain>/brand/. Add a radiator with a forecast curve
(solid past, "now" marker, dashed prediction) as icon.png/icon@2x.png
(256/512 px, transparent) plus dark-theme variants, so the integration
is easy to spot in Devices & services. Older HA versions ignore the
folder and show the generic placeholder; the integration is unaffected.
scripts/make_brand_icons.py regenerates the images with Pillow from the
test requirements; the package check verifies sizes and transparency.
Listed under 0.2.3, which has not been deployed yet.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Bump the manifest to 0.2.3 for the stale-room policy: unusable room
sensors are left out with weights re-normalized, and an opt-in checkbox
keeps a stale sensor's last value for up to 24 hours. 0.2.2 was never
deployed, so the changelog marks it as such and the 0.2.3 notes point
0.2.1 users at both entries. ROADMAP and AUDIT record the decision and
the open control-design questions (minimum weight coverage, outdoor
temperature outages).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A single stale, unavailable, missing or invalid room sensor paused
learning and forecasts for every room. That is not acceptable once the
MPC may control heating.
Now such a room is left out: the weighted temperature, learning and the
optimizer use the remaining rooms with their weights re-normalized, and
a room learns only across poll pairs where it was usable at both ends.
Readiness considers only the rooms used. Everything pauses only when no
room is usable or a shared input (relay, thermostat, outdoor
temperature) is missing.
A new setup/Configure checkbox, room_stale_use_last_value (default off),
keeps using a stale room sensor's last value instead, for sensors that
report only on change. It never applies to unavailable or invalid
sensors, or to a sensor silent for more than 24 hours.
Status adds excluded_rooms, weight_coverage and a per-room "used" flag.
English and Romanian labels and help text added.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Bump the manifest to 0.2.2 and add CHANGELOG.md with upgrade, reset and
rollback notes covering all reliability work since 0.2.1. The README
drops its accumulated "Unreleased" sections in favor of the changelog
and gains a Diagnostics section explaining the Status attributes and how
to choose freshness limits. The package check now fails if the manifest
version has no changelog entry. ROADMAP marks the Milestone 0 items now
backed by tests and resets the next-session backlog; AUDIT.md records
this round's findings.
Still observation-only. Tested in the HA Core harness with HA 2025.12.0
and 2026.2.3; not on HAOS.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Record findings, evidence, compatibility notes and remaining gaps in
AUDIT.md; add user-facing upgrade notes to README and update test
counts; note progress against Milestone 0 in ROADMAP. No version bump.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
buzeraandClaude Opus 5.5
