heating-mpc-ha/README.md

# Heating MPC 0.2.1 — custom integration for Home Assistant OS

**Experimental, observation-only (shadow mode).** It **never** changes the Generic Thermostat, the physical relay, the boiler's setpoint, `heat/off`, or Comfort/Away/Sleep. No Docker add-on, MQTT or InfluxDB connection is needed.

This project targets Home Assistant OS on a Raspberry Pi 5, with one existing ON/OFF central-heating relay, `generic_thermostat`, and individual indoor temperature sensors.

## Install / upgrade

1. Create a Home Assistant backup.
2. Copy the entire folder `custom_components/heating_mpc` into `/config/custom_components/heating_mpc` (replace its contents when upgrading from v0.1.0).
3. Restart Home Assistant **Core**.
4. If new: **Settings → Devices & services → Add integration → Heating MPC**. If installed already: select **Heating MPC → Configure** (Options).
5. Choose the existing thermostat and physical heating switch (read-only), then individual room sensor entities.
6. Choose *ordered lists* of **outdoor sensor entity IDs**. First valid sensor is active; if missing, unavailable, nonnumeric or outside reasonable bounds, the next valid sensor is used automatically.
7. Assign a relative comfort weight (0.1–10) to each selected room.

**No entity IDs are hard-coded.** Every room and outdoor measurement can be changed later via **Configure**, without editing YAML or Python.

## Reconfigurable weather inputs

| Measurement | Required? | Used in the thermal model in 0.2.0? |
|---|---|---|
| Outdoor temperature | **Yes** (1–10 prioritized sensors) | **Yes**: estimates thermal losses; constant over the 2 h forecast window |
| Wind speed | No | No, diagnostics/source comparison only |
| Cloud cover | No | No, diagnostics/source comparison only |
| Humidity | No | No, diagnostics/source comparison only |
| Feels-like temperature | No | No, diagnostics/source comparison only |
| Atmospheric pressure | No | No, diagnostics/source comparison only |
| Visibility | No | No, diagnostics/source comparison only |
| Rain / snow | No | No, diagnostics/source comparison only |

Choose multiple sensors for a single variable, e.g. OpenWeatherMap then another provider, in priority order. Switch order in **Configure** to run A/B comparisons on successive days, or simply let the second sensor act as fallback. The active source and all current alternative readings are visible in the **Heating MPC Status** entity attributes (`weather`, `weather_active_sources`, `weather_comparison`). The **MPC Outdoor Temperature** sensor also has an `active_source` attribute and an `alternatives` map.

Measurements are normalized where possible: outdoor temperatures to °C; wind to m/s; pressure to hPa; visibility to meters. Unknown units or values outside plausibility bounds are rejected in favor of the next selected sensor. Clouds and humidity are expected in %, rain/snow in mm or mm/h as represented by their upstream sensor. A fallback source may have a different sampling delay; no stale-data age policy exists yet.

Switching only the **weather-provider sensors** does not reset learned thermal parameters. The update is applied after the integration reloads, and it skips learning one transition when the primary temperature source changes, avoiding a jump in the training series. Nevertheless, two sensors with a persistent offset can bias predictions; compare their readings and validate the model again before relying on them. Replacing the physical heating switch discards incompatible model parameters. Existing room-specific parameters are retained if room entity IDs remain unchanged.

## Model, sampling and output

- Every 5 minutes: reads HA sensor states and observed relay state; learns a per-room linear thermal model `dT = a*(T_out-T_room) + b*effective_heating + c`.
- Learns only from valid 5-minute transitions; uses a smoothed heating-demand proxy to approximate radiator lag.
- After at least 200 transitions and samples with both heating states, runs an ON/OFF MPC search for the next 60–180 minutes (default 120) in 15-minute command blocks. Protects against rapid simulated toggling.
- Uses room comfort weights and the **existing** Generic Thermostat's target and heat/off state. **The simulated ON/OFF demand never operates hardware**.
- Persists model parameters using HA's `.storage` so HA restarts do not discard the trained data.

Entities (entity IDs may vary):

- `sensor.heating_mpc_status` — learning/ready/paused status and diagnostics, including outside weather, active source, all valid alternative weather values, model coefficients, proposed 15-minute plan.
- `sensor.heating_mpc_weighted_temperature` — own room-weighted average, informative only.
- `sensor.mpc_outdoor_temperature` — selected external temp and alternatives.
- Per-room predicted temperatures after 60 minutes.
- `binary_sensor.heating_mpc_proposed_heat` — **hypothetical** heating demand (unavailable until ready).

## Known limitations / safety

- **Do not** connect the proposed binary sensor directly to the heating switch or build an automation from it. A production controller would need watchdog, manual override, safety handling, and an exclusive relay owner with Generic Thermostat fallback.
- The other meteorological variables besides temperature are intentionally **captured but not yet fitted into the thermal model**. This allows source tests without falsely treating weak inputs as validated improvements. Later versions can test whether wind or solar proxy reduces held-out forecast error.
- All rooms share one heating actuator. The model does not command individual radiators.
- No weather forecast: assumes outdoor temperature remains constant during simulated horizon.
- No Recorder/InfluxDB training backfill. It learns only from samples collected after installation.
- The demand switch is not a burner-flame or real gas consumption measurement.
- Full HAOS/UI runtime integration has **not** been tested; Python/model/unit/source tests are offline checks only.
- Home Assistant Core APIs and config-flow selectors can change; take a backup before trying this experimental custom integration.

## Offline tests

```bash
python -m unittest discover -s tests -v
```

## v0.2.1: integration visibility and clean uninstall

- Corrects the manifest classification from `helper` to `service`. Existing config entries should move from the Helpers listing to **Settings → Devices & services → Integrations** after replacing the files and restarting Home Assistant Core. No deletion/reconfiguration is needed to upgrade.
- When the integration config entry is deleted from the Integrations page, Home Assistant removes its registered entities, and `async_remove_entry` removes the locally persisted learned-model data (`.storage/heating_mpc.<entry_id>`). The custom component source folder remains on disk until manually removed.
- MPC behavior is otherwise unchanged and remains read-only / shadow-only.

## Unreleased: v0.2.1 reliability audit

See [AUDIT.md](AUDIT.md) for findings, fixes, test evidence and remaining gaps.
No active control was added; the manifest version has not been advanced.

- Fix config-entry v1 migration, obsolete room forecast cleanup and coordinator
  cleanup after a raised platform setup error.
- Validate saved models atomically and add an explicit payload schema version.
  Compatible legacy coefficients survive; readiness now requires at least 30 new
  accepted ON and 30 OFF samples **per room** when loading legacy models without
  per-room counters. The existing 200-total-sample requirement also applies.
- Reject intervals containing relay changes or outside-provider changes. Accept
  only 270–330-second intervals and normalize small timing differences. This can
  slow learning; it never generates extra heating cycles.
- Normalize thermostat targets to Celsius; reject invalid weights and optimizer
  parameters. Status can report `invalid_weights` or `inputs_changed`; neither
  publishes a proposal. Input changes during calculation discard the prediction.
- Model diagnostics include each room's accepted total/ON/OFF sample counts.
  Predictions remain **counterfactual**: the proposed plan is not the actual
  Generic Thermostat's future command sequence.

Offline lifecycle tests use HA doubles. Freshness policies, actual HA/HAOS lifecycle
validation and held-out prediction accuracy remain unfinished. Back up before
trying these changes; follow the safe trial and rollback notes in AUDIT.md.