heating-mpc-ha/CHANGELOG.md

# Changelog

Engineering findings and test evidence behind each change are in [AUDIT.md](AUDIT.md).

## 0.3.0 — 2026-10-26

First part of Milestone 1: the integration now measures how accurate its thermal
model is. Still **observation-only**; no new options. Upgrading from an earlier
version: also read the notes of each version in between.

### Added

- Four sensors, **Heating MPC Forecast Error 15/30/60/120 min**: the thermal
  model's mean absolute error over the last 7 days, scored out of sample against
  what actually happened, using the relay's real ON/OFF history. Attributes show
  the bias, the error of a no-change forecast (`persistence_mae`), `skill` and
  per-room details. See README, "Forecast accuracy".
- **Heating MPC Learning Progress** (% towards forecasts being used) and **Heating
  MPC Last Sample** (what the last poll did for learning, with English and Romanian
  state names), so learning activity is visible without opening attributes.
- Room forecast entities: `forecast_15min` (temperature every 15 minutes over the
  horizon) and `plan_15min` (the proposed ON/OFF plan), labelled counterfactual.
- Status: `rejected_samples` per room in `models`, `sample_results_since_start`
  counting how each poll was handled, and `sample_result: waiting_for_inputs` when
  the relay, thermostat, outdoor temperature or every room is missing.

### Changed

- The model is saved after each poll's forecasts are scored, with the forecast
  statistics (about 8 KB for five rooms, at most 18 KB).

### Upgrade notes

- Six new entities appear (four forecast-error sensors, learning progress, last
  sample). The error sensors stay unknown until forecasts can be scored: 15 minutes after
  start for the 15-minute sensor, 2 hours for the 120-minute one. Early numbers
  include the learning phase and are pessimistic.
- Rollback to 0.2.x is safe: older versions ignore the new saved keys, and the six
  new sensors become unavailable (remove them in the entity settings if you roll back
  permanently).

### Development

- Bug-finding lint (ruff: pyflakes, bugbear) in the checks and CI.
- Tests for restoring a model saved by 0.2.1 and for 0.2.1 being able to read
  today's saved model.
- `.DS_Store` files are ignored and rejected by the package check.

## 0.2.3 — 2026-10-26

A stale or failed room sensor no longer pauses the whole integration. Still
**observation-only**. Upgrading from 0.2.1 (0.2.2 was not deployed): follow the
0.2.2 upgrade notes below as well.

### Changed

- A room sensor that is stale, unavailable, missing or invalid is now **left out**
  instead of pausing everything: the weighted temperature, learning and forecasts
  continue with the other rooms, whose comfort weights are re-normalized. Learning
  and forecasts pause only if no room is usable, or if the relay, thermostat or
  outdoor temperature is missing. Readiness considers only the rooms used.

### Added

- Checkbox **Keep using the last value of a room sensor that stopped reporting**
  (setup and Configure, default off), for sensors that report only when the value
  changes. A stale sensor's last value is then still used, for up to 24 hours
  without a report. Unavailable or invalid sensors are always left out.
- Status attributes `excluded_rooms` and `weight_coverage` (share of the total
  comfort weight covered by the rooms used), and a per-room `used` flag in
  `input_quality`.
- Integration icon (a radiator with a forecast curve) in **Settings → Devices &
  services**, with a dark-theme variant. Needs Home Assistant 2026.3 or newer;
  older versions show the generic placeholder.

### Upgrade notes

- The new checkbox appears in **Configure**; existing installations start with it
  off. If a room is often listed in `excluded_rooms` while its temperature is
  steady, either raise that room's report-age limit or turn the checkbox on.
- Rollback to 0.2.2 or 0.2.1 is safe; older versions ignore the new setting.

## 0.2.2 — 2026-10-26 (not deployed)

Reliability release (Milestone 0). Still **observation-only**: the integration never
calls the relay, the thermostat or any other service. No new options or UI text;
entity IDs and settings carry over. Tested in a Home Assistant Core test harness
with HA 2025.12.0 and 2026.2.3; not yet tested on HAOS or with real devices.

### Upgrade notes

- Back up Home Assistant, replace `custom_components/heating_mpc`, restart Core.
- Saved models load, but coefficients learned by 0.2.1 were fitted with a broken
  radiator-lag estimate (see Fixed). Either let them re-converge over a few days of
  heating, or reset the model: disable the integration, delete
  `/config/.storage/heating_mpc.<entry_id>`, restart Core, enable it again. Deleting
  the file while the integration runs does not work; it saves the model again.
  Deleting and re-adding the integration also resets it, but loses the settings.
- After each HA restart, learning pauses for about 30 minutes
  (`sample_result: lag_uncertain`) because the radiator state is unknown.
  Forecasts continue.
- After a day of running, compare each sensor's `max_age_seconds_24h` in Status
  with the freshness limits in Configure (see README, "Choosing freshness limits").
- Rollback: restore the previous folder (or the backup) and restart. 0.2.1 reads
  models saved by 0.2.2 and ignores the new keys.

### Fixed

- The radiator-lag estimate jumped to fully hot or fully cold at every relay
  change. In simulation this learned the heating gain about a third too low, and
  forecasts made just after a boiler cycle started from the wrong state.
- The learner's covariance grew without limit during long OFF periods (for
  example a summer), which could destabilize learning when heating resumed and
  eventually make a restart discard the saved model.
- Optional weather sources could not be removed in Configure.
- A finished forecast was discarded, making proposed heat unavailable for five
  minutes, when only a diagnostic weather sensor or the thermostat's current
  temperature changed during the calculation.
- Config entries from 0.1 were not migrated.
- Forecast entities of removed rooms stayed in the entity registry.
- Malformed or physically implausible saved models could crash setup or be used.
- ON/OFF readiness counts included rejected samples and other rooms' history.
- Polls 4–7 minutes apart, or containing a relay change, were learned as normal
  5-minute samples.
- Thermostat targets were read as Celsius on Fahrenheit installations.
- Invalid room weights or optimizer settings could cause crashes.
- 30/45-minute horizons reported their end point as a 60-minute forecast.

### Added

- Room and weather report-age limits in setup and Configure (5–1440 minutes,
  defaults 30 and 120). Stale outdoor sources fall back to the next one; a stale
  room pauses learning and forecasts until it reports again.
- A read-only listener on the relay, so all relay changes between polls are
  timestamped and integrated.
- Models of rooms removed in Configure are kept (up to 24) and restored if the
  room is added back.
- Status attributes: `input_quality` (per-source state and report age, including
  `max_age_seconds_24h`), `heat_lag`, `heat_lag_uncertainty`, `sample_result`,
  `retired_room_models`, and per-room accepted ON/OFF counts in `models`.
- Statuses `invalid_weights` and `inputs_changed`.

### Changed

- Readiness now also requires 30 accepted ON and 30 accepted OFF samples per room.
- Learning skips intervals with a relay change, an outdoor-source switch or an
  uncertain lag estimate, and polls not 270–330 seconds apart.
- `input_quality` and `weather_comparison` are no longer written to the Recorder;
  they change every poll. Other attributes are still recorded.

### Persisted data

- Model payload `schema_version` 2 (0.2.1 wrote no version). Optional keys:
  per-room `on_count`/`off_count` and `retired_learners`. Older readers ignore them.

### Development

- Home Assistant Core test harness for HA 2025.12.0 and 2026.2.3, a Gitea Actions
  matrix over both, package and translation validation, and a static test that
  fails if actuator service calls are added.

## 0.2.1

- Corrects the manifest classification from `helper` to `service`. Existing config
  entries move from Helpers to **Settings → Devices & services → Integrations**
  after replacing the files and restarting Home Assistant Core.
- Deleting the config entry removes its entities and the learned model
  (`.storage/heating_mpc.<entry_id>`). The component folder stays until removed
  manually.
- MPC behavior otherwise unchanged; read-only / shadow-only.