Validation: the walk-forward evaluator now replays all zones together with the full model (electrical heat, neighbour exchange, ventilation and recovery) using the parameters frozen at the forecast start and the electrical heat and window openings that actually happened, and scores the base 3-parameter model on the same spans. Forecast Error sensors add base_model_mae and improvement_vs_base (share of the base model's error the new features remove; 0 = no gain, negative = worse). Saved 0.3 statistics load with their own error as the base column. On synthetic apartments, 60-minute error full vs base: gaming office 0.031 vs 0.182 °C (83 % better), bedroom with ventilation 0.026 vs 0.218 °C (88 %), two coupled rooms 0.024 vs 0.037 °C (34 %; gone by 120 min, where the constant-outdoor assumption dominates). The same ventilation week without window sensors shows no improvement, as it should. These check the method, not real-world accuracy. Performance: every term of a zone's 5-minute change is affine in the zone temperatures and the radiator lag, and which layer applies depends only on which inputs exist. compile_step_model reads the coefficients off the real model per zone and step, so the plan search does a few multiply-adds per step. It matches the direct model to 1e-12 and makes a 180-minute, 5-zone search 4.5x faster (0.73 s here, close to the old base-only search). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
229 lines
9.4 KiB
Python
229 lines
9.4 KiB
Python
"""Diagnostics and predicted temperatures exposed as HA sensors."""
|
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
|
|
|
from homeassistant.components.sensor import SensorDeviceClass, SensorEntity, SensorStateClass
|
|
from homeassistant.const import PERCENTAGE, UnitOfTemperature
|
|
from homeassistant.helpers.update_coordinator import CoordinatorEntity
|
|
|
|
from .const import (
|
|
DOMAIN, READY_OFF_SAMPLES, READY_ON_SAMPLES, READY_SAMPLES, SAMPLE_RESULTS,
|
|
)
|
|
from .evaluation import HORIZONS, WINDOW_DAYS
|
|
|
|
|
|
async def async_setup_entry(hass, entry, async_add_entities) -> None:
|
|
coordinator = hass.data[DOMAIN][entry.entry_id]
|
|
entities = [MPCStatus(coordinator, entry.entry_id), MPCWeightedTemp(coordinator, entry.entry_id), MPCOutdoorTemperature(coordinator, entry.entry_id),
|
|
MPCLearningProgress(coordinator, entry.entry_id), MPCLastSample(coordinator, entry.entry_id)]
|
|
entities += [MPCForecastError(coordinator, entry.entry_id, horizon) for horizon in HORIZONS]
|
|
# Zone forecasts belong to their zone subentry, so deleting a zone removes them.
|
|
linked = {}
|
|
for zone in coordinator.zones.values():
|
|
entity = MPCRoomPrediction(coordinator, entry.entry_id, zone.key)
|
|
if zone.subentry_id:
|
|
linked.setdefault(zone.subentry_id, []).append(entity)
|
|
else:
|
|
entities.append(entity)
|
|
async_add_entities(entities)
|
|
for subentry_id, zone_entities in linked.items():
|
|
async_add_entities(zone_entities, config_subentry_id=subentry_id)
|
|
|
|
|
|
class MPCStatus(CoordinatorEntity, SensorEntity):
|
|
_attr_has_entity_name = True
|
|
_attr_name = "Heating MPC Status"
|
|
_attr_icon = "mdi:brain"
|
|
# Per-source report ages change every poll; recording them adds a new
|
|
# attribute row to the database every five minutes. Current values stay visible.
|
|
_unrecorded_attributes = frozenset({"input_quality", "weather_comparison", "heat_sources", "windows",
|
|
"ventilation", "ventilation_events"})
|
|
|
|
def __init__(self, coordinator, entry_id):
|
|
super().__init__(coordinator)
|
|
self._attr_unique_id = f"{entry_id}_status"
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def native_value(self):
|
|
return self.coordinator.data.get("status")
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def extra_state_attributes(self):
|
|
data = self.coordinator.data
|
|
# Forecast details live on their own entities.
|
|
return {key: value for key, value in data.items() if key not in (
|
|
"status", "prediction_60m", "prediction_end", "prediction_trajectory", "forecast_accuracy",
|
|
"zone_details")}
|
|
|
|
|
|
class MPCWeightedTemp(CoordinatorEntity, SensorEntity):
|
|
_attr_has_entity_name = True
|
|
_attr_name = "Heating MPC Weighted Temperature"
|
|
_attr_device_class = SensorDeviceClass.TEMPERATURE
|
|
_attr_native_unit_of_measurement = UnitOfTemperature.CELSIUS
|
|
|
|
def __init__(self, coordinator, entry_id):
|
|
super().__init__(coordinator)
|
|
self._attr_unique_id = f"{entry_id}_weighted_temp"
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def native_value(self):
|
|
return self.coordinator.data.get("weighted_temperature")
|
|
|
|
|
|
class MPCRoomPrediction(CoordinatorEntity, SensorEntity):
|
|
_attr_has_entity_name = True
|
|
_attr_device_class = SensorDeviceClass.TEMPERATURE
|
|
_attr_native_unit_of_measurement = UnitOfTemperature.CELSIUS
|
|
_attr_icon = "mdi:chart-line"
|
|
|
|
def __init__(self, coordinator, entry_id, room):
|
|
super().__init__(coordinator)
|
|
self.room = room
|
|
self._attr_unique_id = f"{entry_id}_{room}_predicted_60min"
|
|
self._attr_name = f"MPC {coordinator.zones[room].name} 60min Prediction"
|
|
|
|
# Change every poll; the 60-minute value itself is recorded.
|
|
_unrecorded_attributes = frozenset({"forecast_15min", "plan_15min", "forecast", "contributions_c_per_h",
|
|
"coefficients", "current_temperature", "model_in_use"})
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def native_value(self):
|
|
return self.coordinator.data.get("prediction_60m", {}).get(self.room)
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def extra_state_attributes(self):
|
|
data = self.coordinator.data
|
|
trajectory = data.get("prediction_trajectory", {}).get(self.room) or []
|
|
details = data.get("zone_details", {}).get(self.room, {})
|
|
return {
|
|
"current_temperature": details.get("temperature"),
|
|
"forecast": {f"{minutes}_min": trajectory[minutes // 15 - 1]
|
|
for minutes in (15, 30, 60, 120) if len(trajectory) >= minutes // 15},
|
|
"forecast_15min": trajectory or None,
|
|
"plan_15min": data.get("plan_15min"),
|
|
"basis": "proposed MPC plan; counterfactual while Generic Thermostat controls the relay",
|
|
"model_in_use": details.get("model_in_use"),
|
|
"contributions_c_per_h": details.get("contributions_c_per_h"),
|
|
"coefficients": details.get("coefficients"),
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
class MPCOutdoorTemperature(CoordinatorEntity, SensorEntity):
|
|
"""Display chosen outdoor temperature and all currently valid alternatives."""
|
|
_attr_has_entity_name = True
|
|
_attr_name = "MPC Outdoor Temperature"
|
|
_attr_device_class = SensorDeviceClass.TEMPERATURE
|
|
_attr_native_unit_of_measurement = UnitOfTemperature.CELSIUS
|
|
_attr_icon = "mdi:thermometer"
|
|
|
|
def __init__(self, coordinator, entry_id):
|
|
super().__init__(coordinator)
|
|
self._attr_unique_id = f"{entry_id}_outside_temperature"
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def native_value(self):
|
|
return self.coordinator.data.get("weather", {}).get("temperature")
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def extra_state_attributes(self):
|
|
data = self.coordinator.data
|
|
return {
|
|
"active_source": data.get("weather_active_sources", {}).get("temperature"),
|
|
"alternatives": data.get("weather_comparison", {}).get("temperature", {}),
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
class MPCForecastError(CoordinatorEntity, SensorEntity):
|
|
"""Mean absolute error of the thermal model at one horizon, replayed against reality."""
|
|
_attr_has_entity_name = True
|
|
_attr_device_class = SensorDeviceClass.TEMPERATURE_DELTA
|
|
_attr_native_unit_of_measurement = UnitOfTemperature.CELSIUS
|
|
_attr_state_class = SensorStateClass.MEASUREMENT
|
|
_attr_suggested_display_precision = 2
|
|
_attr_icon = "mdi:target"
|
|
_unrecorded_attributes = frozenset({"zones"})
|
|
|
|
def __init__(self, coordinator, entry_id, horizon):
|
|
super().__init__(coordinator)
|
|
self.horizon = horizon
|
|
self._attr_unique_id = f"{entry_id}_forecast_error_{horizon}min"
|
|
self._attr_name = f"Heating MPC Forecast Error {horizon} min"
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def _accuracy(self):
|
|
return self.coordinator.data.get("forecast_accuracy", {}).get(self.horizon, {})
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def native_value(self):
|
|
return self._accuracy.get("mae")
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def extra_state_attributes(self):
|
|
accuracy = self._accuracy
|
|
return {
|
|
"samples": accuracy.get("samples", 0),
|
|
"bias": accuracy.get("bias"),
|
|
"persistence_mae": accuracy.get("persistence_mae"),
|
|
"skill": accuracy.get("skill"),
|
|
"base_model_mae": accuracy.get("base_model_mae"),
|
|
"improvement_vs_base": accuracy.get("improvement_vs_base"),
|
|
# Per zone, by name.
|
|
"zones": {self.coordinator.zones[key].name if key in self.coordinator.zones else key: stats
|
|
for key, stats in accuracy.get("rooms", {}).items()},
|
|
"window_days": WINDOW_DAYS,
|
|
"unit_of_attributes": "°C",
|
|
"basis": ("all zones replayed together with the actual relay, electrical heat and "
|
|
"window history; outdoor temperature held at the start value"),
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
class MPCLearningProgress(CoordinatorEntity, SensorEntity):
|
|
"""How close the least trained room is to being used for forecasts."""
|
|
_attr_has_entity_name = True
|
|
_attr_name = "Heating MPC Learning Progress"
|
|
_attr_native_unit_of_measurement = PERCENTAGE
|
|
_attr_state_class = SensorStateClass.MEASUREMENT
|
|
_attr_suggested_display_precision = 0
|
|
_attr_icon = "mdi:school-outline"
|
|
|
|
def __init__(self, coordinator, entry_id):
|
|
super().__init__(coordinator)
|
|
self._attr_unique_id = f"{entry_id}_learning_progress"
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def native_value(self):
|
|
return self.coordinator.data.get("learning_progress")
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def extra_state_attributes(self):
|
|
data = self.coordinator.data
|
|
return {
|
|
"samples": data.get("samples"),
|
|
"on_samples": data.get("on_samples"),
|
|
"off_samples": data.get("off_samples"),
|
|
"required": {"samples": READY_SAMPLES, "on_samples": READY_ON_SAMPLES,
|
|
"off_samples": READY_OFF_SAMPLES},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
class MPCLastSample(CoordinatorEntity, SensorEntity):
|
|
"""What the last poll did for learning; its history shows when learning happens."""
|
|
_attr_has_entity_name = True
|
|
_attr_name = "Heating MPC Last Sample"
|
|
_attr_translation_key = "last_sample" # translated state names
|
|
_attr_device_class = SensorDeviceClass.ENUM
|
|
_attr_options = list(SAMPLE_RESULTS)
|
|
_attr_icon = "mdi:clipboard-pulse-outline"
|
|
_unrecorded_attributes = frozenset({"counts_since_start"})
|
|
|
|
def __init__(self, coordinator, entry_id):
|
|
super().__init__(coordinator)
|
|
self._attr_unique_id = f"{entry_id}_last_sample"
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def native_value(self):
|
|
return self.coordinator.data.get("sample_result")
|
|
|
|
@property
|
|
def extra_state_attributes(self):
|
|
return {"counts_since_start": self.coordinator.data.get("sample_results_since_start", {})}
|