buzeraandClaude Opus 5.5 26c415fa6c Separate model accuracy from forecast accuracy ...

The Forecast Error sensors replayed the model with the relay, electrical heat
and window history that actually followed, so they measured the model, not a
forecast anyone could have made. They are renamed Model Error (unique IDs
unchanged) and gain RMSE, effective sample count and a quality label; their
state stays unknown until there are at least 5 roughly independent spans.

A new Forecast Error sensor scores forecasts as published, with the plan and
assumptions of the moment they were made. A forecast is scored only when the
relay followed its plan; otherwise it is counted as counterfactual, not as
error. Statistics are saved with the model and dropped with a zone's
recalibration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-10-27 03:47:16 +02:00

..

conftest.py

Track radiator lag across relay changes

2026-10-26 21:21:14 +02:00

test_config_flow.py

Make per-sensor weights visible and labelled in the zone form

2026-10-27 03:29:29 +02:00

test_lifecycle.py

Separate model accuracy from forecast accuracy

2026-10-27 03:47:16 +02:00