Reproduced: a forecast planning 15 minutes of heat was scored although the
relay was on for 12 (the 0.4.1 rule allowed 20 % per 15-minute block), and
the same on-time placed elsewhere in a block passed as well.
- The relay's on-time per poll interval, integrated at its own switch
times, is compared with the plan block by block up to each horizon: the
deviation is the time the relay spent in another state than planned.
Unobserved relay time counts as possible deviation.
- Matched (at most 2 minutes, worst case): Forecast Error figures.
Approximate (at most 5 minutes, at most 2 of them unobserved): separate
approximate_stats. Counterfactual (more than 5 minutes seen): counted, not
scored. Incomplete otherwise, by reason: relay history, assumed inputs at
forecast time (an unknown window or electrical heat), no poll near the
due time, or a missing reading.
- 2 minutes of unplanned boiler heat move a room by roughly half a 0.1 °C
sensor step for the learned heat coefficients (0.05-0.12 °C per 5
minutes); 5 minutes by about one step.
- Stored ledger statistics are versioned (2); 0.4.1 statistics used the
looser rule and are dropped.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
buzeraandClaude Opus 5.5
0b82a8e26c