Each zone forecast entity now shows the current temperature, the
forecast at +15/+30/+60/+120 minutes (what the horizon covers), which
model layer is in use, and what drives the zone right now in °C/h:
envelope loss, boiler, bias, electrical heat, neighbours, ventilation
and recovery, plus each layer's coefficients with standard error,
confidence and whether it is identified. These attributes change every
poll and are not recorded.
Tests for inter-zone exchange on a two-room synthetic apartment (living
room and a colder bedroom, one boiler): with a true coupling of 0.01 the
learner finds a clearly positive value but, because the difference
between rooms is fairly steady and therefore collinear with each room's
bias, correctly reports it as not identified; with no coupling it stays
near zero.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Opening a window adds heat exchange that the envelope model mistook for
poor insulation or a constant cooling bias.
windows.py adds windows as config subentries ("Add window"): a contact
sensor (optionally inverted; unknown/unavailable stays unknown, never
"closed"), its zone, the direction its outside faces (default 345°,
editable) and an opening factor. Each poll computes the share of the
interval each window was open (one change located by its timestamp, a
round trip is unknown), the wind exposure with proper circular angles
(meteorological "from" direction vs the window's facing) and a recovery
weight after closing that decays towards 0, pulling the air back
towards its pre-ventilation temperature. A bounded event log records
opening/closing, duration, temperatures before/lowest/at close/30 min
after, weather and other open windows.
While a zone's window is open, unknown or recovering, the base and
extended models skip it; a separate ventilation learner fits the
closed-window model's residual with natural exchange, wind speed, a
directional term bounded by the wind term (a leeward window still
ventilates), recovery, and optional gust excess and cross-ventilation
terms. Forecasts assume an open window closes after a configurable time
(default 15 min), then recovers. New poll outcome "ventilation".
Weather gains optional wind direction (degrees, 360 -> 0) and wind gust
sources with the same priorities and fallback; knots and ft/s accepted.
On a synthetic week with ventilation events every four hours and a
daily outdoor swing, the configured zone keeps loss/heat/bias close to
the truth and recovers the combined natural+wind effect within 15 %,
recovery within 15 % and direction within 30 %. The same data without
the window configured produces a -0.013 °C/5 min cooling bias and an
11 % inflated boiler effect.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Each temperature sensor used to be its own "room", so a room with two
sensors counted twice and comfort importance was tied to sensors.
zones.py adds Zone: a name, one or more sensors with sensor weights, a
comfort weight, an optional target offset and adjacent zones (made
symmetric). Sensor weights only combine readings; comfort weights only
steer the MPC; neither touches the learned thermal coefficients.
Zones are config subentries (HA's native "Add zone" / edit / delete on
the integration page), with validation that a sensor belongs to one
zone and is not an outdoor source, and a sensor-weight step for
multi-sensor zones. Initial setup still asks for room sensors and
weights and creates one zone per sensor. Configure no longer asks for
rooms or weights.
Config entry version 3. Migrating from 2 turns each room sensor into a
one-sensor zone with its comfort weight and the sensor's entity ID as
the zone key, so learned models, forecast entities (now linked to their
zone, so deleting a zone removes them) and accuracy statistics carry
over. Older versions cannot load a version 3 entry; rolling back needs
the HA backup.
A zone learns only across polls that used the same sensors (a sensor
dropping out shifts the mean by its offset); the new poll outcome
"sensors_changed" reports this. Status renames: input_quality.zones
(per-sensor detail nested), excluded_zones, retired_zone_models; adds
zone_names. Invalid stored comfort weights now fall back to 1.0, so the
invalid_weights status is gone.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
During a first test the Status entity only said "learning" for the
first half hour (the radiator-lag wait after a restart), and the
attributes explaining why were hard to find. Add two sensors:
- Learning Progress (%): for the least trained room, the mean of its
three readiness requirements (200 samples, 30 ON, 30 OFF), each capped
at 100 %; 100 % means ready. Attributes show the counts.
- Last Sample: an enum of the last poll's learning outcome, with English
and Romanian state names (e.g. "Waiting for radiators to settle"). Its
history shows when learning happens.
Polls blocked by missing shared inputs now report waiting_for_inputs.
Readiness thresholds move to const.py.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
There was no evidence of how accurate the thermal model is: the only
number was an in-sample 5-minute error.
At every poll, record each room's reading, the outdoor temperature, the
radiator-lag estimate and the model parameters. 15, 30, 60 and 120
minutes later, replay the room from that poll with the parameters it
had then (out of sample), the outdoor temperature held constant and the
radiator lag that actually followed from the relay's real history, and
compare with the reading now. A no-change forecast is scored alongside.
Only spans with regular polls and a well-known lag are scored. 7 days
of per-room statistics are saved with the model (optional "evaluation"
payload key; about 18 KB at most).
Four new sensors, Heating MPC Forecast Error 15/30/60/120 min, show the
mean absolute error with bias, persistence error, skill and per-room
detail. On the synthetic lagged plant the 60-minute error is 0.03 °C
against 0.39 °C for persistence.
Room forecast entities gain forecast_15min and plan_15min attributes
and are labelled counterfactual. Volatile attributes are unrecorded.
The model is now saved after scoring, so saved statistics are current.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Choosing room and weather freshness limits required knowing how long
each sensor normally goes without reporting, which HA does not show.
Add max_age_seconds_24h to every source in input_quality: the largest
report age seen at polls over the last 24 hours (hourly buckets, reset
on reload, underestimates by up to one poll interval).
input_quality and weather_comparison change every poll, so the Recorder
stored a new attribute row every five minutes. Mark them unrecorded;
they remain visible on the Status entity. Model coefficients and other
attributes are still recorded.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
buzeraandClaude Opus 5.5