Release 0.3.0

First part of Milestone 1: Forecast Error sensors scoring the thermal
model against reality, forecast trajectories, Learning Progress and Last
Sample sensors, rejected-sample and poll-outcome counters, plus lint
and rollback-contract tests. README explains forecast accuracy, the
30-minute learning wait after a restart and where Developer Tools now
lives. ROADMAP marks the items now backed by tests; AUDIT records the
evaluation design and evidence. Still observation-only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

ROADMAP.md

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ Success means predictable comfort, understandable decisions, safe operation and
 
 ## Current baseline — v0.2.1
 
-> **Current release: 0.2.3** — Milestone 0 reliability work on top of this
+> **Current release: 0.3.0** — Milestone 0 reliability work and the first part of Milestone 1 on top of this
 > baseline; see [CHANGELOG.md](CHANGELOG.md). The lists below describe 0.2.1.
 
 **Implemented (experimental):**
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ Current behavior: **shadow mode only**. `generic_thermostat` remains the one and
 - [x] Add input freshness thresholds and diagnostics that identify exactly which source is missing/stale/invalid.
 - [x] Verify that source switching, entity renaming, adding/removing rooms and replacing the relay do not silently reuse incompatible fitted coefficients. *(0.2.2: tests for outdoor-source switching, adding, removing and re-adding rooms, and relay replacement. A renamed sensor is handled as removing one room and adding another; its old model is retained under the old ID.)*
 - [ ] Version persisted model schema; test corrupted/older state and migration/rollback behavior.
-- [ ] Verify calculated sample totals and successful/failed fitting counters; expose reasons why training/prediction is unavailable.
+- [x] Verify calculated sample totals and successful/failed fitting counters; expose reasons why training/prediction is unavailable. *(0.3.0: per-room accepted/ON/OFF/rejected counts, per-outcome poll counters, Learning Progress and Last Sample sensors, Status reasons; covered by tests.)*
 - [ ] Add CI, linting, tests and packaging validation (including HACS metadata/translations).
 - [x] Update installation/release documentation and remove packaged `__pycache__`/`.pyc` files if present. *(0.2.2: CHANGELOG with upgrade/rollback notes; package check rejects tracked bytecode.)*
 
@@ -89,13 +89,13 @@ recording volatile attributes, and tests against HA 2025.12.0 and 2026.2.3.
 
 **Objective:** Users can verify what the model predicts and whether it is actually accurate.
 
-- [ ] Expose trajectories for each room at 5–15-minute resolution for 2–3 hours, with forecast generation timestamp, horizon and input provenance.
-- [ ] Expose predicted +15/+30/+60/+120 minute temperatures and full proposed ON/OFF schedule.
+- [ ] Expose trajectories for each room at 5–15-minute resolution for 2–3 hours, with forecast generation timestamp, horizon and input provenance. *(0.3.0: 15-minute trajectory over the horizon; generation timestamp and provenance still to add.)*
+- [x] Expose predicted +15/+30/+60/+120 minute temperatures and full proposed ON/OFF schedule. *(0.3.0: `forecast_15min` and `plan_15min` on each room forecast entity.)*
 - [ ] Provide an HA dashboard example using native cards or a clearly documented optional chart card (do not bundle a heavyweight frontend unnecessarily).
-- [ ] Make clear that the **MPC plan forecast is counterfactual** while Generic Thermostat is controlling the relay; add a separate actual-policy forecast/evaluation pathway.
+- [ ] Make clear that the **MPC plan forecast is counterfactual** while Generic Thermostat is controlling the relay; add a separate actual-policy forecast/evaluation pathway. *(0.3.0: plan forecasts labelled counterfactual; evaluation uses the actual relay history. An actual-policy forecast, simulating Generic Thermostat, is still open.)*
 - [ ] Store a bounded history of predictions with snapshots of inputs, proposed plan and eventually observed outcome.
-- [ ] Implement out-of-sample/walk-forward MAE and bias at 15, 30, 60 and 120 minutes; include sample counts and confidence/quality labels.
-- [ ] Compare against simple benchmarks such as current-temperature persistence and a fixed thermal baseline.
+- [x] Implement out-of-sample/walk-forward MAE and bias at 15, 30, 60 and 120 minutes; include sample counts and confidence/quality labels. *(0.3.0: Forecast Error sensors; replay with parameters frozen at the forecast start and the actual relay history; `skill` against persistence. No confidence intervals yet.)*
+- [ ] Compare against simple benchmarks such as current-temperature persistence and a fixed thermal baseline. *(0.3.0: persistence done; fixed baseline open.)*
 - [ ] Add inspectable explanations: expected heat loss, expected heating response, target, room weights and reason for the next proposed action.
 
 **Candidate quality gate:** Sustain **about 0.3–0.4°C or better 60-minute MAE** on representative held-out data *under comparable known relay input sequences*, without systematic room bias. This is a starting engineering goal to validate, not a guarantee or an arbitrary gate to waive. Compare to baselines.
@@ -174,9 +174,10 @@ Items 1–3 of the original backlog are done (see AUDIT.md and CHANGELOG.md 0.2.
    room out, or optionally keep its last value for up to 24 hours). Before live
    control, decide a minimum `weight_coverage` and the outdoor-temperature outage
    policy, which still pauses.
-3. Milestone 1: record forecasts with their input snapshot and evaluate them
-   walk-forward at 15/30/60/120 minutes against persistence, replaying the actual
-   relay sequence; then expose trajectories for a dashboard.
+3. Milestone 1 (rest, 0.3.x): let the Forecast Error sensors collect a few weeks
+   of heating data and review per-room bias; a dashboard example; forecast
+   timestamps/provenance; a fixed-parameter baseline; explanations for the proposed
+   action; an actual-policy forecast that simulates Generic Thermostat.
 4. Only then consider richer weather inputs and the live-control **design**; do not
    implement live control without separate authorization.