Count rejected samples and poll outcomes; pin rollback contract

Status showed accepted sample counts but not why learning was slow.
Each room's model now counts samples it rejected (outliers, implausible
inputs), persisted as an optional rejected_count key and shown as
models.<room>.rejected_samples. Status also counts every poll outcome
since start (sample_results_since_start).

Add tests that a model in the exact shape 0.2.1 wrote restores with its
coefficients, and that today's saved model still has the keys and types
0.2.1's restore code reads, so rolling back keeps the learned model.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

custom_components/heating_mpc/coordinator.py

@@ -45,6 +45,8 @@ class HeatingMPCCoordinator(DataUpdateCoordinator[dict[str, Any]]):
         self.learners: dict[str, Learner] = {room: Learner() for room in self.rooms}
         self._retired: dict[str, dict[str, Any]] = {}
         self._report_ages = ReportAgeHistory()
+        # How each poll was handled since start, to explain slow learning.
+        self._sample_results: dict[str, int] = {}
         self._store = Store(hass, 1, f"{DOMAIN}.{entry.entry_id}")
         self._previous: dict[str, Any] | None = None
         # Radiator-lag proxy at the last poll with a valid relay state. Tracked
@@ -291,6 +293,9 @@ class HeatingMPCCoordinator(DataUpdateCoordinator[dict[str, Any]]):
                     "outside_source": active_sources["temperature"],
                 })
 
+        result = status["sample_result"]
+        self._sample_results[result] = self._sample_results.get(result, 0) + 1
+        status["sample_results_since_start"] = dict(self._sample_results)
         self._previous = {
             "time": now, "temps": vals, "outside": outside, "heater_on": heater_on,
             "outside_source": active_sources["temperature"],
@@ -320,6 +325,7 @@ class HeatingMPCCoordinator(DataUpdateCoordinator[dict[str, Any]]):
                        "bias": round(model.theta[2], 6),
                        "samples": model.count,
                        "on_samples": model.on_count, "off_samples": model.off_count,
+                       "rejected_samples": model.rejected_count,
                        "mae_5m": round(model.mae, 4) if model.mae is not None else None}
                 for room, model in self.learners.items()
             },

custom_components/heating_mpc/physics.py

@@ -90,6 +90,8 @@ class Learner:
     error_sum: float = 0.0
     on_count: int = 0
     off_count: int = 0
+    # Samples offered but not fitted (outliers, implausible inputs).
+    rejected_count: int = 0
 
     def predict_delta(self, temp: float, outside: float, heat: float) -> float:
         a, b, c = self.theta
@@ -97,15 +99,13 @@ class Learner:
 
     def learn(self, temp_before: float, temp_after: float, outside: float, effective_heat: float,
               duration_seconds: float = 300, command: bool | None = None) -> bool:
-        if not all(isfinite(x) for x in (temp_before, temp_after, outside, effective_heat)):
+        if (not all(isfinite(x) for x in (temp_before, temp_after, outside, effective_heat))
-            return False
+                or not 0 <= effective_heat <= 1
-        if not 0 <= effective_heat <= 1:
+                or not isfinite(duration_seconds) or not 270 <= duration_seconds <= 330):
-            return False
+            return self._reject()
-        if not isfinite(duration_seconds) or not 270 <= duration_seconds <= 330:
-            return False
         y = (temp_after - temp_before) * 300 / duration_seconds
         if abs(y) > 0.8:  # sensor glitch/door opened/restarted device
-            return False
+            return self._reject()
         x = [outside - temp_before, effective_heat, 1.0]
         predicted = sum(t * v for t, v in zip(self.theta, x))
         residual = y - predicted
@@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ class Learner:
         forgetting = 0.999
         denominator = forgetting + sum(x[i] * px[i] for i in range(3))
         if not isfinite(denominator) or denominator <= 0:
-            return False
+            return self._reject()
         k = [value / denominator for value in px]
         self.theta = [t + k[i] * residual for i, t in enumerate(self.theta)]
         for i in range(3):
@@ -135,13 +135,18 @@ class Learner:
                 self.off_count += 1
         return True
 
+    def _reject(self) -> bool:
+        self.rejected_count += 1
+        return False
+
     @property
     def mae(self) -> float | None:
         return self.error_sum / self.count if self.count else None
 
     def as_dict(self) -> dict[str, Any]:
         return {"theta": self.theta, "p": self.p, "count": self.count, "error_sum": self.error_sum,
-                "on_count": self.on_count, "off_count": self.off_count}
+                "on_count": self.on_count, "off_count": self.off_count,
+                "rejected_count": self.rejected_count}
 
     @classmethod
     def from_dict(cls, source: dict[str, Any]) -> "Learner":
@@ -175,14 +180,15 @@ class Learner:
                         lower[i][j] = value ** .5
                     else:
                         lower[i][j] = value / lower[j][j]
-            counts = [source.get(key, 0) for key in ("count", "on_count", "off_count")]
+            counts = [source.get(key, 0)
+                      for key in ("count", "on_count", "off_count", "rejected_count")]
             if any(type(v) is not int or v < 0 for v in counts):
                 return obj
-            count, on_count, off_count = counts
+            count, on_count, off_count, rejected_count = counts
             error_sum = float(source.get("error_sum", 0))
             if not isfinite(error_sum) or error_sum < 0 or on_count + off_count > count:
                 return obj
-            return cls(theta, p, count, error_sum, on_count, off_count)
+            return cls(theta, p, count, error_sum, on_count, off_count, rejected_count)
         except (KeyError, TypeError, ValueError, OverflowError):
             return obj
 

tests/test_coordinator.py

@@ -615,3 +615,42 @@ class BoundaryTests(unittest.IsolatedAsyncioTestCase):
                 data = await self.sample()
                 self.assertEqual(data['excluded_rooms'], ['sensor.bedroom'])
                 self.assertEqual(data['status'], 'learning')
+
+    async def test_poll_outcomes_and_rejections_are_counted(self):
+        await self.sample()
+        self.states['sensor.room'].state = '25'  # implausible 5 °C jump in five minutes
+        data = await self.sample()
+        self.assertEqual(data['sample_result'], 'partly_rejected')
+        self.assertEqual(data['models']['sensor.room']['rejected_samples'], 1)
+        self.fresh('sensor.room', 'sensor.outside')
+        data = await self.sample()
+        self.assertEqual(data['sample_results_since_start'],
+                         {'first_sample': 1, 'partly_rejected': 1, 'learned': 1})
+
+    async def test_restores_model_saved_by_v021(self):
+        # Exact shape written by 0.2.1: no schema version, per-room counts or new keys.
+        legacy = {'learners': {'sensor.room': {
+            'theta': [0.004, 0.11, 0.0005], 'p': [[1e-4, 0, 0], [0, 0.01, 0], [0, 0, 1e-3]],
+            'count': 900, 'error_sum': 27.0}},
+            'on_samples': 300, 'off_samples': 600, 'heater_entity': 'switch.boiler',
+            'outside_source': 'sensor.outside'}
+        self.c._store.async_load.return_value = legacy
+        await self.c.async_restore_model()
+        model = self.c.learners['sensor.room']
+        self.assertEqual((model.theta, model.count), ([0.004, 0.11, 0.0005], 900))
+        self.assertEqual((model.on_count, model.off_count, model.rejected_count), (0, 0, 0))
+
+    async def test_saved_model_stays_readable_by_v021(self):
+        """Rollback contract: the keys and types 0.2.1's restore code reads."""
+        await self.sample()
+        await self.sample()
+        payload = self.c._store.async_save.call_args.args[0]
+        self.assertIsInstance(payload['heater_entity'], str)
+        for key in ('on_samples', 'off_samples'):
+            self.assertIs(type(payload[key]), int)
+        for data in payload['learners'].values():
+            self.assertEqual(len(data['theta']), 3)
+            self.assertTrue(all(len(row) == 3 for row in data['p']))
+            self.assertIs(type(data['count']), int)
+            float(data['error_sum'])
+            [float(v) for v in data['theta'] + [v for row in data['p'] for v in row]]

tests/test_physics.py

@@ -85,13 +85,17 @@ class ModelTests(unittest.TestCase):
         for a, b in zip(nominal.theta, delayed.theta):
             self.assertAlmostEqual(a, b)
         self.assertFalse(delayed.learn(20, 25, 5, .5, command=False))
-        self.assertEqual((delayed.count, delayed.on_count, delayed.off_count), (1, 1, 0))
+        self.assertFalse(delayed.learn(20, 20.1, 5, 1.5, command=False))
+        self.assertEqual((delayed.count, delayed.on_count, delayed.off_count, delayed.rejected_count),
+                         (1, 1, 0, 2))
+        self.assertEqual(m.Learner.from_dict(delayed.as_dict()).rejected_count, 2)
 
     def test_corrupt_model_restore_is_atomic(self):
         for changes in ({'theta': [-1, .1, 0]}, {'p': [[-1, 0, 0], [0, 1, 0], [0, 0, 1]]},
                         {'count': float('inf')}, {'count': '5'}, {'error_sum': float('nan')},
                         {'off_count': 1}, {'theta': [float('nan'), 0, 0]}, {'p': None},
-                        {'p': [[1, .5, 0], [0, 1, 0], [0, 0, 1]]}):
+                        {'p': [[1, .5, 0], [0, 1, 0], [0, 0, 1]]}, {'rejected_count': -1},
+                        {'rejected_count': '3'}):
             with self.subTest(changes=changes):
                 data = m.Learner().as_dict()
                 data.update(changes)