Release 0.4.0
Zones, electrical heat sources, windows with ventilation, wind exposure and recovery, and exchange between adjacent zones, all observational. docs/MODEL.md documents the equations, units, coefficient meanings, priors and bounds, learning conditions, forecast assumptions, validation method and results, and limitations. README gains a configuration guide for zones, heat sources and windows, the new diagnostics and the accuracy comparison against the base model. CHANGELOG has upgrade notes (config entry version 3, rollback needs the backup, renamed Status attributes). ROADMAP marks the Milestone 2 items now covered; AUDIT records the design decisions and evidence. AGENTS.md lists the new modules and the convention that new model terms start at zero and must beat the base model out of sample before being relied on. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -83,6 +83,7 @@ Favor the standard library and small dependencies. Heavy compute must not block
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- Validate model identifiability, parameter stability, outlier rejection, missing observations, power outages, heater transitions within a sampling window, and multiple sensors in the same physical room.
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- Weather covariates beyond temperature should be added only if they improve held-out performance; avoid treating `feels_like` as physical outdoor air temperature. Forecast values and observed values must be distinguished.
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- One switch heats all rooms: optimization can trade off room comfort, but cannot independently heat a cold bathroom without influencing warmer rooms.
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- Keep the base 3-parameter model as fallback and comparison. New model terms start at a zero prior, are physically bounded, report confidence, learn only when their inputs are known, and must show `improvement_vs_base` in walk-forward replays before being relied on (see docs/MODEL.md).
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## Repository conventions
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@@ -90,22 +91,33 @@ Expected structure (adapt only through deliberate refactoring):
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```text
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custom_components/heating_mpc/
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__init__.py
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__init__.py setup, unload, migration
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manifest.json
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config_flow.py
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config_flow.py config, options and subentry flows (zones, heat sources, windows)
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const.py
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coordinator.py
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physics.py
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weather_sources.py
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coordinator.py HA state acquisition, learning schedule, diagnostics
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data_quality.py freshness checks
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weather_sources.py source priorities and unit normalization
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zones.py zone parsing and sensor aggregation (pure)
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heat_sources.py electrical heat: baseline, response, overlap (pure)
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windows.py windows, wind geometry, ventilation, events (pure)
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learning.py named-feature RLS (pure)
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physics.py base model, radiator lag, optimizer (pure)
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zone_model.py layered zone model, compiled forecast step (pure)
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evaluation.py walk-forward forecast scoring (pure)
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sensor.py
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binary_sensor.py
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strings.json
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translations/{en,ro}.json
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brand/ integration icons (scripts/make_brand_icons.py)
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docs/MODEL.md model equations, units, learning conditions, validation
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hacs.json
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tests/
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tests/ offline tests; tests/ha for the HA Core harness
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README.md
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CHANGELOG.md
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AGENTS.md
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ROADMAP.md
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AUDIT.md
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```
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- Keep pure model/optimizer logic importable and testable without Home Assistant installed.
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@@ -269,3 +269,54 @@ poll with missing shared inputs now reports `waiting_for_inputs` instead of noth
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**Verification.** `sh scripts/check.sh` passes in both environments: lint, 80
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offline tests, 20 HA Core tests, compilation, package checks. The offline tests
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also pass on Python 3.9.6.
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## 0.4.0 — zones, electrical heat, ventilation, wind, inter-zone exchange
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Scope: repository code and tests (HA Core 2025.12.0 and 2026.2.3 harness); no
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HAOS, device or deployment testing. Still no actuator code; the static and runtime
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service-call guards pass.
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Design decisions and why:
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- **Zones as config subentries.** HA's native pattern for several items under one
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integration gives per-item add/edit/delete and removes a zone's entities with it.
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Config entry version 3; migrating from 2 keeps each room's sensor ID as the zone
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key so learned models, entities and statistics carry over. Rollback needs the
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backup.
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- **Layered model per zone.** The 0.3 base model is kept unchanged as fallback and
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as the comparison every forecast is scored against; the extended and ventilation
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layers learn only from intervals where their inputs are known, start at 0 with
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priors sized in "typical samples", and report confidence. This follows the
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roadmap rule to retain the simpler model and justify complexity by measured
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improvement.
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- **Ventilation separated from envelope loss.** Open, unknown or recovering windows
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exclude a zone from base and extended learning; a separate learner fits the
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residual. On the synthetic week, not doing this produced a −0.013 °C/5 min bias
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and an 11 % inflated boiler coefficient.
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- **Baseline-centred electrical heat.** The persistent load is already in the bias
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term; only variation above a 24-hour 20th percentile is modeled, after a
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first-order response driven by the power held over each interval.
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- **Bounded directional wind term.** |vent_wind_dir| ≤ vent_wind, so leeward
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windows still ventilate; angles use wrap-around differences.
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- **Forecast assumptions** are single, conservative scenarios (electrical heat
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fades with a half-life, open windows close after a set time) and are
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configurable; no uncertainty band yet.
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- **Exact compiled step** for the plan search: all terms are affine in temperatures
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and lag, so coefficients are read off the real model (verified to 1e-12); the
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180-minute search is 4.5× faster.
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Evidence (synthetic apartments, 60-minute error, full vs base vs no change): gaming
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office 0.031 / 0.182 / 0.40 °C; ventilation bedroom 0.026 / 0.218 / 0.52 °C; two
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coupled rooms 0.024 / 0.037 / 0.29 °C. Coefficients recovered: electrical, boiler
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and loss within 10 %; combined natural+wind ventilation within 15 %; recovery within
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15 %; wind direction within 30 %. Coupling is found but correctly reported as not
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identified when the rooms' difference is steady.
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Not done, by decision: learned response time constants (configurable; compare
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candidates out of sample next), a wall-mass state, forecast scenarios/uncertainty,
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weather forecasts. Learners of removed zones keep only the base model.
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**Verification.** `sh scripts/check.sh` passes in both environments (lint, 125
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offline tests, 26 HA Core tests, compilation, package/translation/changelog checks).
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The offline tests also pass on Python 3.9.6.
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@@ -2,6 +2,79 @@
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Engineering findings and test evidence behind each change are in [AUDIT.md](AUDIT.md).
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## 0.4.0 — 2026-10-27
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Thermal zones, electrical heat sources, windows with ventilation and wind, and
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heat exchange between zones (Milestone 2, first part). Still **observation-only**:
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no new service calls, the boiler and thermostat are untouched. Tested in the Home
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Assistant Core harness with HA 2025.12.0 and 2026.2.3; not yet on HAOS.
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### Upgrade notes
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- **Back up Home Assistant first.** The config entry moves to version 3: each room
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sensor becomes a one-sensor **zone** with its comfort weight, and the sensor's
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entity ID stays the zone's key, so learned models, forecast entities and
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accuracy statistics carry over unchanged. No model reset is needed.
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- **Downgrading needs the backup.** Older versions refuse a version 3 entry.
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- Configure no longer asks for room sensors or weights; manage zones with **Add
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zone** and each zone's edit button on the integration page.
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- Status attributes renamed: `input_quality.rooms` → `input_quality.zones` (each
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zone lists its sensors), `excluded_rooms` → `excluded_zones`,
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`retired_room_models` → `retired_zone_models`. The Forecast Error attribute
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`rooms` is now `zones`, keyed by zone name. The `invalid_weights` status is gone
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(invalid stored weights fall back to 1.0). Update templates that used these.
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- New layers start with no assumed effect and need data: the electrical term needs
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gaming sessions (or other load changes), the ventilation terms need window
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openings. Watch `improvement_vs_base` on the Forecast Error sensors before
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relying on them; switch off optional terms that do not help.
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### Added
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- **Zones** (config subentries): name, several sensors with sensor weights, comfort
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weight, target offset and adjacent zones. Sensor and comfort weights never change
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learned thermal coefficients.
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- **Heat sources**: active power (W/kW; VA and % rejected), zone, heat fraction,
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automatic 24-hour baseline or manual value, "included in" another source (no
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double counting), thermal response time, enable/disable.
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- **Windows**: contact sensor (optional inverted polarity; unknown stays unknown),
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zone, facing direction (default 345°), opening factor, enable/disable; a bounded
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log of ventilation events.
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- **Wind direction** and **wind gust** weather sources with priorities and fallback;
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knots and ft/s accepted.
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- Model options: electrical-heat forecast half-life, assumed open-window time,
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recovery time constant, and wind / gust / cross-ventilation terms.
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- Per-zone diagnostics on each zone's forecast entity: current temperature,
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+15/+30/+60/+120-minute forecast, contributions in °C/h, coefficients with
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confidence; Status lists heat sources, windows, ventilation and recent events.
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- Forecast Error sensors: `base_model_mae` and `improvement_vs_base`.
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- Poll outcomes `sensors_changed` and `ventilation`, with English and Romanian names.
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### Changed
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- Each zone's model is layered: the unchanged base model (fallback and
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comparison), an extended layer with electrical heat and neighbours, and a
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separate ventilation layer. Zones with an open, unknown or recovering window are
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kept out of base and extended learning.
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- Forecasts simulate all zones together, with electrical heat fading to baseline
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and open windows closing after the configured time; the plan search uses an exact
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compiled step and stays fast at 180 minutes.
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- Accuracy scoring replays all zones with the actual relay, electrical heat and
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window history, and scores the base model on the same spans.
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### Persisted data
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- Model payload `schema_version` stays 2 with optional new keys: `zone_models`,
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`ventilation_models`, `heat_sources` (baseline samples) and `ventilation`
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(events). Forecast statistics gain a base-model column; 0.3 statistics load.
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### Development
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- New pure modules: `learning.py` (named-feature RLS), `zones.py`, `heat_sources.py`,
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`windows.py`, `zone_model.py`; [docs/MODEL.md](docs/MODEL.md) documents the model.
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- Synthetic-apartment tests for gaming heat, ventilation with wind and recovery,
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and coupled rooms, each checking recovered coefficients and out-of-sample
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improvement over the base model.
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## 0.3.0 — 2026-10-26
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First part of Milestone 1: the integration now measures how accurate its thermal
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@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
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# Heating MPC 0.3.0 — custom integration for Home Assistant OS
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# Heating MPC 0.4.0 — custom integration for Home Assistant OS
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**Experimental, observation-only (shadow mode).** It **never** changes the Generic Thermostat, the physical relay, the boiler's setpoint, `heat/off`, or Comfort/Away/Sleep. No Docker add-on, MQTT or InfluxDB connection is needed.
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@@ -10,20 +10,60 @@ This project targets Home Assistant OS on a Raspberry Pi 5, with one existing ON
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2. Copy the entire folder `custom_components/heating_mpc` into `/config/custom_components/heating_mpc` (replace its contents when upgrading; read the upgrade notes in [CHANGELOG.md](CHANGELOG.md) first).
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3. Restart Home Assistant **Core**.
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4. If new: **Settings → Devices & services → Add integration → Heating MPC**. If installed already: select **Heating MPC → Configure** (Options).
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5. Choose the existing thermostat and physical heating switch (read-only), then individual room sensor entities.
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5. Choose the existing thermostat and physical heating switch (read-only), then room temperature sensors. Each sensor becomes a zone; group them later (see below).
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6. Choose *ordered lists* of **outdoor sensor entity IDs**. First valid sensor is active; if missing, unavailable, nonnumeric or outside reasonable bounds, the next valid sensor is used automatically.
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7. Assign a relative comfort weight (0.1–10) to each selected room.
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7. Assign a relative comfort weight (0.1–10) to each selected sensor's zone.
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8. Optionally add zones, heat sources and windows from the integration page (next section).
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On Home Assistant 2026.3 or newer the integration shows its own icon (a radiator with a forecast curve) in **Devices & services**; older versions show a generic placeholder.
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**No entity IDs are hard-coded.** Every room and outdoor measurement can be changed later via **Configure**, without editing YAML or Python.
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**No entity IDs are hard-coded.** Every sensor, zone, heat source, window and outdoor measurement can be changed later in the UI, without editing YAML or Python.
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## Zones, heat sources and windows
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On **Settings → Devices & services → Heating MPC**, the buttons **Add zone**, **Add
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heat source** and **Add window** create items that can each be edited or deleted
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later. **Configure** holds everything else: thermostat, relay, weather sources,
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report-age limits, MPC settings and model options.
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**Zones** are rooms or areas. Each has a name, one or more temperature sensors with
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sensor weights (how much each counts in the zone temperature), a comfort weight
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(how much the zone matters to the MPC), an optional target offset relative to the
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thermostat's target, and optional adjacent zones it exchanges heat with. Sensor and
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comfort weights never change the learned thermal coefficients. A sensor belongs to
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one zone only. Upgrading from 0.3 turns each room sensor into a one-sensor zone
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with the same comfort weight; to group two sensors of one room, edit one zone to
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include both and delete the other.
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**Heat sources** are equipment whose electricity ends up as heat in a zone, such as
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a UPS feeding computers. Settings: an active-power sensor (W or kW; VA and % are
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rejected), the zone, the share of the power that becomes heat there (1.0 by
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default), the baseline (automatic: the low end of the last 24 hours; or a manual
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value in W), whether its reading is **already included in** another source (for a
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PC measured separately behind a UPS, so it is not counted twice), and the thermal
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response time (default 15 minutes). Only the variation above the baseline is
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modeled; the persistent load is already part of the zone's learned behavior.
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**Windows** need a contact sensor (binary sensor), the zone, whether the sensor
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reports *on* when closed (inverted), the direction the outside of the window faces
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(degrees clockwise from north; default 345°, editable) and an opening factor
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(1.0 normal, lower for tilted, higher for large). Unknown or unavailable states are
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treated as unknown, never as closed.
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Model options in **Configure**: how fast extra electrical heat is assumed to fade in
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forecasts (half-life, default 30 minutes), how long an open window is assumed to
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stay open (default 15 minutes), the recovery time constant after closing (default
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20 minutes), and whether to use wind, wind gusts and cross-ventilation terms.
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See [docs/MODEL.md](docs/MODEL.md) for the equations and what is learned when.
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## Reconfigurable weather inputs
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| Measurement | Required? | Used in the thermal model? |
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|---|---|---|
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| Outdoor temperature | **Yes** (1–10 prioritized sensors) | **Yes**: estimates thermal losses; constant over the 2 h forecast window |
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| Wind speed | No | No, diagnostics/source comparison only |
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| Wind speed | No | Yes, for open windows (ventilation), when enabled |
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| Wind direction (degrees the wind comes from) | No | Yes, with the windows' facing direction |
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| Wind gust | No | Only if the gust option is enabled |
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| Cloud cover | No | No, diagnostics/source comparison only |
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| Humidity | No | No, diagnostics/source comparison only |
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| Feels-like temperature | No | No, diagnostics/source comparison only |
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@@ -33,29 +73,35 @@ On Home Assistant 2026.3 or newer the integration shows its own icon (a radiator
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Choose multiple sensors for a single variable, e.g. OpenWeatherMap then another provider, in priority order. Switch order in **Configure** to run A/B comparisons on successive days, or simply let the second sensor act as fallback. The active source and all current alternative readings are visible in the **Heating MPC Status** entity attributes (`weather`, `weather_active_sources`, `weather_comparison`). The **MPC Outdoor Temperature** sensor also has an `active_source` attribute and an `alternatives` map.
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Measurements are normalized where possible: outdoor temperatures to °C; wind to m/s; pressure to hPa; visibility to meters. Unknown units or values outside plausibility bounds are rejected in favor of the next selected sensor. Clouds and humidity are expected in %, rain/snow in mm or mm/h as represented by their upstream sensor. A fallback source may have a different sampling delay; configurable report-age limits now reject stale inputs (see below).
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Measurements are normalized where possible: outdoor temperatures to °C; wind and gusts to m/s (from km/h, mph, kn, ft/s); wind direction to degrees (360 = 0); pressure to hPa; visibility to meters. Unknown units or values outside plausibility bounds are rejected in favor of the next selected sensor. Clouds and humidity are expected in %, rain/snow in mm or mm/h as represented by their upstream sensor. A fallback source may have a different sampling delay; configurable report-age limits now reject stale inputs (see below).
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Switching only the **weather-provider sensors** does not reset learned thermal parameters. The update is applied after the integration reloads, and it skips learning one transition when the primary temperature source changes, avoiding a jump in the training series. Nevertheless, two sensors with a persistent offset can bias predictions; compare their readings and validate the model again before relying on them. Replacing the physical heating switch discards incompatible model parameters. Existing room-specific parameters are retained if room entity IDs remain unchanged.
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Switching only the **weather-provider sensors** does not reset learned thermal parameters. The update is applied after the integration reloads, and it skips learning one transition when the primary temperature source changes, avoiding a jump in the training series. Nevertheless, two sensors with a persistent offset can bias predictions; compare their readings and validate the model again before relying on them. Replacing the physical heating switch discards incompatible model parameters. Learned zone parameters are kept as long as the zone exists (its key does not change when you edit it).
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## Model, sampling and output
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- Every 5 minutes: reads HA sensor states and observed relay state; learns a per-room linear thermal model `dT = a*(T_out-T_room) + b*effective_heating + c`.
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- Learns only from valid 5-minute transitions; uses a smoothed heating-demand proxy to approximate radiator lag. Relay changes are timestamped by a read-only state listener, so the lag estimate follows every switch between polls.
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- After at least 200 transitions and samples with both heating states, runs an ON/OFF MPC search for the next 60–180 minutes (default 120) in 15-minute command blocks. Protects against rapid simulated toggling.
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- Uses room comfort weights and the **existing** Generic Thermostat's target and heat/off state. **The simulated ON/OFF demand never operates hardware**.
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- Persists model parameters using HA's `.storage` so HA restarts do not discard the trained data. Models of rooms removed in Configure are kept (up to 24) and restored if the room is added back.
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- Every 5 minutes: reads sensor, relay, power and window states and learns a per-zone model in layers (full description in [docs/MODEL.md](docs/MODEL.md)):
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- **base**: `dT = loss*(T_out-T) + heat*lag + bias`, always learned, the fallback and comparison;
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- **extended**: adds electrical heat above baseline and exchange with adjacent zones;
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- **ventilation**: learned separately while a window is open or the room recovers, so open windows never look like poor insulation.
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- New effects start at zero and report a confidence; nothing is assumed until the data shows it. Relay changes are timestamped by a read-only state listener.
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- After 200 samples per zone, including both relay states, runs an ON/OFF MPC search for the next 60–180 minutes (default 120) in 15-minute command blocks, simulating all zones together with assumed electrical heat and window behavior.
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- Uses zone comfort weights and target offsets with the **existing** Generic Thermostat's target and heat/off state. **The simulated ON/OFF demand never operates hardware**.
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- Persists everything learned in HA's `.storage`. Models of zones removed in the UI are kept (up to 24) and restored if the zone is added back.
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Entities (entity IDs may vary):
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- `sensor.heating_mpc_status` — learning/ready/paused status and diagnostics, including outside weather, active source, all valid alternative weather values, model coefficients, proposed 15-minute plan.
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- `sensor.heating_mpc_weighted_temperature` — own room-weighted average, informative only.
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- `sensor.heating_mpc_weighted_temperature` — comfort-weighted average of the zones, informative only.
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- `sensor.mpc_outdoor_temperature` — selected external temp and alternatives.
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- Per-room predicted temperatures after 60 minutes. Attributes `forecast_15min` (the
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temperature every 15 minutes over the horizon) and `plan_15min` (the proposed
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ON/OFF plan). These assume the MPC's plan is executed; while Generic Thermostat
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controls the relay they are **counterfactual**.
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- One forecast entity per zone (**MPC <zone> 60min Prediction**), state = the zone's
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temperature in 60 minutes. Attributes: `current_temperature`, `forecast` (+15/+30/
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+60/+120 minutes as far as the horizon goes), `forecast_15min`, `plan_15min`,
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`model_in_use`, `contributions_c_per_h` (what drives the zone right now: loss,
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heat, bias, internal, neighbors, ventilation, recovery) and `coefficients` with
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confidence. Plan forecasts assume the MPC's plan is executed; while Generic
|
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Thermostat controls the relay they are **counterfactual**.
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- `binary_sensor.heating_mpc_proposed_heat` — **hypothetical** heating demand (unavailable until ready).
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- **Heating MPC Learning Progress** — how close the least trained room is to being
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- **Heating MPC Learning Progress** — how close the least trained zone is to being
|
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used for forecasts (100 % = ready); attributes show the sample counts and what is
|
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required.
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- **Heating MPC Last Sample** — what the last poll did for learning (for example
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@@ -67,7 +113,8 @@ Entities (entity IDs may vary):
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## Known limitations / safety
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||||
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- **Do not** connect the proposed binary sensor directly to the heating switch or build an automation from it. A production controller would need watchdog, manual override, safety handling, and an exclusive relay owner with Generic Thermostat fallback.
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- The other meteorological variables besides temperature are intentionally **captured but not yet fitted into the thermal model**. This allows source tests without falsely treating weak inputs as validated improvements. Later versions can test whether wind or solar proxy reduces held-out forecast error.
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- Weather variables other than temperature, wind and gusts are **captured but not fitted**. Wind and gusts are used only for open windows. Keep optional model terms only when **Forecast Error** shows they help (`improvement_vs_base`).
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- One temperature per zone (no separate wall mass), configured response times, and single-scenario forecasts of electrical heat and windows. See [docs/MODEL.md](docs/MODEL.md#limitations).
|
||||
- All rooms share one heating actuator. The model does not command individual radiators.
|
||||
- No weather forecast: assumes outdoor temperature remains constant during simulated horizon.
|
||||
- No Recorder/InfluxDB training backfill. It learns only from samples collected after installation.
|
||||
@@ -89,46 +136,61 @@ After a Home Assistant restart that time is unknown, so learning waits until the
|
||||
estimate is within 10 % (*Waiting for radiators to settle*), about 32 minutes.
|
||||
Forecasts continue meanwhile. Reloading the integration usually does not cause this
|
||||
wait, because the relay's last change is still known. *Ready* then needs 200
|
||||
accepted samples (about 17 hours) per room, including 30 with the relay ON and 30
|
||||
accepted samples (about 17 hours) per zone, including 30 with the relay ON and 30
|
||||
with it OFF, which can take a few days depending on how often the boiler runs.
|
||||
|
||||
The **Heating MPC Status** entity's state is one of `waiting_for_sensors`,
|
||||
`learning`, `paused` (thermostat not in `heat`), `waiting_for_target`,
|
||||
`invalid_weights`, `ready`, `inputs_changed` or `prediction_error`. Proposed heat
|
||||
is available only while it is `ready`. Useful attributes:
|
||||
`no_zones` (add a zone), `learning`, `paused` (thermostat not in `heat`), `waiting_for_target`, `ready`,
|
||||
`inputs_changed` or `prediction_error`. Proposed heat is available only while it
|
||||
is `ready`. Useful attributes:
|
||||
|
||||
- `input_quality` — for each room and each weather source (grouped by metric):
|
||||
`status` (`valid`, `missing`, `unknown`, `unavailable`, `stale`,
|
||||
`invalid_timestamp`, `future_timestamp` or `invalid_value_or_unit`),
|
||||
- `input_quality` — per zone (with each of its sensors) and per weather source
|
||||
(grouped by metric): `status` (`valid`, `missing`, `unknown`, `unavailable`,
|
||||
`stale`, `invalid_timestamp`, `future_timestamp` or `invalid_value_or_unit`),
|
||||
`age_seconds` (time since the sensor last reported to HA) and
|
||||
`max_age_seconds_24h` (largest age seen at polls in the last 24 hours; resets on
|
||||
reload and can read up to one poll, 5 minutes, low). Rooms also have `used`:
|
||||
whether that room's reading was used in this poll.
|
||||
- `excluded_rooms` and `weight_coverage` — rooms left out of this poll, and the
|
||||
share of the total comfort weight still covered by the rooms used (1.0 = all).
|
||||
reload and can read up to one poll, 5 minutes, low). Zones and sensors have `used`.
|
||||
- `excluded_zones` and `weight_coverage` — zones left out of this poll, and the
|
||||
share of the total comfort weight still covered by the zones used (1.0 = all).
|
||||
`zone_names` maps zone keys to names.
|
||||
- `heat_sources` — per source: measured and effective power (after removing
|
||||
included sources), baseline, variable power above it, thermal response, whether it
|
||||
has settled.
|
||||
- `windows` — per window: state, minutes open, wind direction relative to the
|
||||
window's facing and the resulting exposure (1 = wind straight at it).
|
||||
`ventilation` — per zone: current opening, recovery, temperature before opening,
|
||||
its contribution in °C/h and the ventilation coefficients. `ventilation_events` —
|
||||
the last five openings with temperatures before, lowest, at closing and 30
|
||||
minutes after, and the weather.
|
||||
- `heat_lag` and `heat_lag_uncertainty` — the radiator-lag estimate (0 cold, 1 fully
|
||||
warm) and its error bound. Learning waits while the bound is above 0.1, for
|
||||
example for about 30 minutes after an HA restart.
|
||||
- `sample_result` — why the last poll was or was not learned: `first_sample`,
|
||||
`learned`, `partly_rejected` (an outlier in some room), `interval_out_of_range`,
|
||||
`relay_changed`, `outside_source_changed` or `lag_uncertain`.
|
||||
- `models` — per-room coefficients, accepted sample counts and the in-sample
|
||||
5-minute error (`mae_5m`), which is **not** a forecast accuracy.
|
||||
- `retired_room_models` — removed rooms whose learned models are kept.
|
||||
`sensors_changed` (a zone's set of usable sensors changed), `learned`,
|
||||
`ventilation` (only window-affected zones; given to the ventilation model),
|
||||
`partly_rejected` (an outlier in some zone), `interval_out_of_range`,
|
||||
`relay_changed`, `outside_source_changed`, `lag_uncertain` or `waiting_for_inputs`.
|
||||
- `models` — per-zone base coefficients, accepted sample counts and the in-sample
|
||||
5-minute error (`mae_5m`, **not** a forecast accuracy), `model_in_use` and the
|
||||
extended layer's coefficients with confidence.
|
||||
- `retired_zone_models` — removed zones whose learned models are kept.
|
||||
|
||||
`input_quality` and `weather_comparison` change every poll, so they are not
|
||||
written to the Recorder; the other attributes are.
|
||||
`input_quality`, `weather_comparison`, `heat_sources`, `windows`, `ventilation`
|
||||
and `ventilation_events` change every poll, so they are not written to the
|
||||
Recorder; the other attributes are.
|
||||
|
||||
### Choosing freshness limits
|
||||
|
||||
Room and weather report-age limits are set during setup and in **Configure**
|
||||
(5–1440 minutes; defaults 30 for rooms and 120 for weather).
|
||||
|
||||
A room sensor that is older than its limit, unavailable, missing or invalid is
|
||||
**left out**: the weighted temperature, learning and forecasts continue with the
|
||||
other rooms, whose weights are re-normalized. Status shows it in `excluded_rooms`.
|
||||
Learning and forecasts pause only when no room is usable, or when the relay,
|
||||
thermostat or outdoor temperature is missing. A room that reports again learns
|
||||
A zone sensor that is older than its limit, unavailable, missing or invalid is
|
||||
**left out**; the zone uses its other sensors (without learning across that change).
|
||||
A zone with no usable sensor is left out entirely: the weighted temperature,
|
||||
learning and forecasts continue with the
|
||||
other zones, whose weights are re-normalized. Status shows it in `excluded_zones`.
|
||||
Learning and forecasts pause only when no zone is usable, or when the relay,
|
||||
thermostat or outdoor temperature is missing. A zone that reports again learns
|
||||
from its second poll onwards, so nothing is learned across its gap.
|
||||
|
||||
The checkbox **Keep using the last value of a room sensor that stopped reporting**
|
||||
@@ -155,16 +217,17 @@ age limit.
|
||||
## Forecast accuracy
|
||||
|
||||
The four **Forecast Error** sensors measure the thermal model against reality,
|
||||
continuously and out of sample. At every poll the integration records each room's
|
||||
continuously and out of sample. At every poll the integration records each zone's
|
||||
reading, the outdoor temperature, the radiator-lag estimate and the model's
|
||||
parameters. 15, 30, 60 and 120 minutes later it replays that room from the earlier
|
||||
parameters. 15, 30, 60 and 120 minutes later it replays the zones from the earlier
|
||||
reading using the parameters it had **then**, the outdoor temperature held at its
|
||||
starting value, and the radiator heat that actually followed from the relay's real
|
||||
ON/OFF history. The result is compared with the current reading.
|
||||
|
||||
This tests the thermal model, not the MPC plan, because the plan is never
|
||||
executed. Each sensor's state is the mean absolute error (°C) over the last 7 days,
|
||||
across all rooms. Attributes, all in °C except counts:
|
||||
executed. All zones are replayed together, with the electrical heat and window
|
||||
openings that actually happened, and the base model is scored on the same spans. Each sensor's state is the mean absolute error (°C) over the last 7 days,
|
||||
across all zones. Attributes, all in °C except counts:
|
||||
|
||||
- `samples` — number of scored forecasts. Consecutive forecasts overlap, so they
|
||||
are not independent; treat small counts as indicative only.
|
||||
@@ -172,11 +235,14 @@ across all rooms. Attributes, all in °C except counts:
|
||||
- `persistence_mae` — error of simply assuming no change; the baseline to beat.
|
||||
- `skill` — `1 - mae / persistence_mae`: 1 is perfect, 0 is no better than
|
||||
assuming no change, negative is worse. Empty while the temperature did not change.
|
||||
- `rooms` — the same numbers per room (not written to the Recorder).
|
||||
- `base_model_mae`, `improvement_vs_base` — the base model's error on the same
|
||||
spans, and the share of it the extra layers remove (0 = no gain, negative = they
|
||||
make it worse: switch that option off).
|
||||
- `zones` — the same numbers per zone (not written to the Recorder).
|
||||
|
||||
Forecasts are scored only where the inputs were known: polls 4.5–5.5 minutes
|
||||
apart, a usable reading at the start and the end, and a well-known radiator-lag
|
||||
estimate throughout. A missing relay, outdoor temperature or all rooms restarts the
|
||||
estimate throughout. A missing relay, outdoor temperature or all zones restarts the
|
||||
replay window, so scores resume 15–120 minutes later. Statistics are kept with the
|
||||
model and survive restarts; deleting the model resets them.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
+16
-11
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ Success means predictable comfort, understandable decisions, safe operation and
|
||||
|
||||
## Current baseline — v0.2.1
|
||||
|
||||
> **Current release: 0.3.0** — Milestone 0 reliability work and the first part of Milestone 1 on top of this
|
||||
> **Current release: 0.4.0** — Milestone 0 reliability work, part of Milestone 1 and the first part of Milestone 2 on top of this
|
||||
> baseline; see [CHANGELOG.md](CHANGELOG.md). The lists below describe 0.2.1.
|
||||
|
||||
**Implemented (experimental):**
|
||||
@@ -104,14 +104,14 @@ recording volatile attributes, and tests against HA 2025.12.0 and 2026.2.3.
|
||||
|
||||
**Objective:** Improve forecasts with genuinely useful features, not just more inputs.
|
||||
|
||||
- [ ] Compare existing per-room linear model with a multi-zone RC model including inter-room heat exchange.
|
||||
- [ ] Address multiple sensors within a single physical room; configurable room grouping, aggregation and comfort priorities.
|
||||
- [x] Compare existing per-room linear model with a multi-zone RC model including inter-room heat exchange. *(0.4.0: layered zone model with neighbour exchange; base model scored alongside on every forecast. Exchange between zones sharing one boiler is weakly identifiable and reported as such.)*
|
||||
- [x] Address multiple sensors within a single physical room; configurable room grouping, aggregation and comfort priorities. *(0.4.0: zones with sensor weights, comfort weights and target offsets.)*
|
||||
- [ ] Distinguish air/room thermal mass and radiator lag where observable; avoid overfitting unidentifiable parameters.
|
||||
- [ ] Add optional Recorder history import/backfill for **indoor sensor + physical relay** history; do not assume old HA Recorder data still exists.
|
||||
- [ ] Add outdoor forecast data with future timestamps (forecast provider selectable) and compare forecast-based versus constant-outdoor assumptions.
|
||||
- [ ] Experiment with wind/cloud cover as optional covariates; retain them only if held-out forecast error improves. Solar gains may require orientation/irradiance or a useful proxy.
|
||||
- [ ] Experiment with wind/cloud cover as optional covariates; retain them only if held-out forecast error improves. Solar gains may require orientation/irradiance or a useful proxy. *(0.4.0: wind speed, direction and gusts for open windows, optional and judged by `improvement_vs_base`; clouds and solar still open.)*
|
||||
- [ ] Expose source reliability and provider comparison: normalized units, update age, outages and sensor offsets.
|
||||
- [ ] Handle shifts in room usage, opened windows, sensor relocation and season changes without unstable feedback.
|
||||
- [ ] Handle shifts in room usage, opened windows, sensor relocation and season changes without unstable feedback. *(0.4.0: opened windows handled by a separate ventilation layer; electrical loads by heat sources. Sensor relocation and seasons still open.)*
|
||||
- [ ] Benchmark RAM, CPU and event-loop latency on Raspberry Pi 5. Prefer standard-library/small scientific dependencies and avoid heavy inference runtimes.
|
||||
|
||||
**Exit criteria:** Model complexity justified by reproducible forecast improvements over v0.3.0; stable fitting and manageable HAOS resource usage. Retain the simpler model as fallback where it performs better.
|
||||
@@ -174,12 +174,17 @@ Items 1–3 of the original backlog are done (see AUDIT.md and CHANGELOG.md 0.2.
|
||||
room out, or optionally keep its last value for up to 24 hours). Before live
|
||||
control, decide a minimum `weight_coverage` and the outdoor-temperature outage
|
||||
policy, which still pauses.
|
||||
3. Milestone 1 (rest, 0.3.x): let the Forecast Error sensors collect a few weeks
|
||||
of heating data and review per-room bias; a dashboard example; forecast
|
||||
timestamps/provenance; a fixed-parameter baseline; explanations for the proposed
|
||||
action; an actual-policy forecast that simulates Generic Thermostat.
|
||||
4. Only then consider richer weather inputs and the live-control **design**; do not
|
||||
implement live control without separate authorization.
|
||||
3. Configure zones, the UPS heat source and the windows on HAOS; after a week of
|
||||
heating review `improvement_vs_base`, per-zone bias and which coefficients are
|
||||
identified. Switch off optional terms that do not help.
|
||||
4. Milestone 1 (rest): a dashboard example; forecast timestamps/provenance;
|
||||
explanations for the proposed action; an actual-policy forecast that simulates
|
||||
Generic Thermostat.
|
||||
5. Milestone 2 (rest): learned response times (compare candidate time constants
|
||||
out of sample), a wall-mass state if recovery data shows it is needed, Recorder
|
||||
backfill, weather forecasts, and a Raspberry Pi 5 resource benchmark.
|
||||
6. Only then consider the live-control **design**; do not implement live control
|
||||
without separate authorization.
|
||||
|
||||
## Definition of done for each milestone
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -9,5 +9,5 @@
|
||||
"iot_class": "local_polling",
|
||||
"requirements": [],
|
||||
"single_config_entry": true,
|
||||
"version": "0.3.0"
|
||||
"version": "0.4.0"
|
||||
}
|
||||
+218
@@ -0,0 +1,218 @@
|
||||
# Heating MPC thermal model
|
||||
|
||||
This document describes the model used from version 0.4.0: what it computes, the
|
||||
units and meaning of every coefficient, when each part learns, what the forecasts
|
||||
assume, and how the model is validated. It is observational: nothing here controls
|
||||
the boiler.
|
||||
|
||||
## Time step and inputs
|
||||
|
||||
The model works in 5-minute steps, the polling interval. For each zone *i*, each
|
||||
poll provides:
|
||||
|
||||
| Symbol | Meaning | Unit | Source |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| T_i | Zone temperature: sensor-weighted mean of its usable sensors | °C | zone sensors |
|
||||
| T_out | Outdoor temperature (first fresh, valid source) | °C | weather sources |
|
||||
| lag | Radiator-lag proxy, 0 (cold) to 1 (fully warm); 20-minute first-order response to the relay, integrated at the relay's actual switch times | – | relay state + read-only listener |
|
||||
| q_i | Electrical heat above baseline after its thermal response | kW | heat sources |
|
||||
| O_i | Sum of open windows' opening factors, weighted by the share of the interval they were open | – | window sensors |
|
||||
| F_i | Same, each window also weighted by cos(angle between wind direction and the window's facing) | – | windows + wind direction |
|
||||
| v, g | Wind speed and gust speed | m/s | weather sources |
|
||||
| R_i | Recovery weight after the zone's last window closed: exp(−t / τ_rec), 0 below 0.05 | – | window sensors |
|
||||
| T_ref,i | Zone temperature at the poll before the window opened | °C | zone sensors |
|
||||
|
||||
## Equations
|
||||
|
||||
Per 5-minute step, the predicted change of zone *i* is the sum of layers:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
ΔT_i = loss × (T_out − T_i) envelope heat loss
|
||||
+ heat × lag boiler, through the radiators
|
||||
+ bias constant gains and losses
|
||||
+ internal × q_i electrical heat above baseline (extended layer)
|
||||
+ Σ_j couple:j × (T_j − T_i) exchange with adjacent zones (extended layer)
|
||||
+ vent_natural × O_i (T_out − T_i) (ventilation layer)
|
||||
+ vent_wind × O_i v (T_out − T_i)
|
||||
+ vent_wind_dir × F_i v (T_out − T_i)
|
||||
+ vent_gust × O_i max(0, g − v) (T_out − T_i) (optional)
|
||||
+ vent_cross × O_i O_other (T_out − T_i) (optional)
|
||||
+ recovery × R_i (T_ref,i − T_i)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
All coefficients are in °C per 5 minutes per unit of their term. They are
|
||||
statistical estimates, not measured physical properties: `heat` is not boiler
|
||||
efficiency, and a relay that is on does not prove the burner is firing.
|
||||
|
||||
In conceptual continuous-time form this corresponds to
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
C_i dT_i/dt = UA_i (T_out − T_i) + Q_boiler + Q_internal + Q_ventilation + Σ_j K_ij (T_j − T_i) + Q_other
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
divided through by the zone's effective heat capacity C_i and discretized to 5
|
||||
minutes. The model is first-order (one temperature per zone). Thermal inertia
|
||||
enters through the radiator lag, the electrical response filter and the recovery
|
||||
term; a separate wall-mass state is not modeled (see Limitations).
|
||||
|
||||
### Base layer
|
||||
|
||||
The base layer is the 3-parameter model of earlier versions (loss, heat, bias),
|
||||
learned per zone. It is always kept: it is the fallback whenever another layer's
|
||||
inputs are unknown, and the comparison that shows whether the other layers help.
|
||||
|
||||
### Extended layer
|
||||
|
||||
Present when a zone has an enabled heat source or an adjacent zone. It learns all
|
||||
base terms plus `internal` and `couple:<zone>` and replaces the base layer in
|
||||
forecasts once it is as trained as the base layer needs to be (200 samples, 30 with
|
||||
the relay on, 30 off). If any of its inputs is unknown, the base layer is used.
|
||||
|
||||
### Electrical heat
|
||||
|
||||
For each enabled source:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
effective power = measured W − measured W of enabled sources included in it (≥ 0)
|
||||
baseline = 20th percentile of the last 24 h of effective power, or the manual value
|
||||
variable heat = heat fraction × (effective power − baseline) / 1000 (kW)
|
||||
thermal response : r ← r + (1 − exp(−5 min / τ)) × (variable heat held during the interval − r)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
q_i is the sum of the responses of the zone's sources. Centring on the baseline
|
||||
matters: the persistent load (for example a UPS drawing 200 W all day) is already
|
||||
part of the bias term, so feeding it again would count it twice. The baseline
|
||||
needs one hour of data; after startup or an outage a source's response must run
|
||||
for two time constants before it is used for learning.
|
||||
|
||||
Only active power counts (W, kW, mW). VA (apparent power) and % (UPS load) are
|
||||
rejected. A UPS output sensor does not include the UPS's own losses; if they matter,
|
||||
measure the input side or lower the heat fraction accordingly.
|
||||
|
||||
### Ventilation layer
|
||||
|
||||
Present when a zone has an enabled window. Learned separately, from the part of
|
||||
the measured change the closed-window layers cannot explain, only while a window is
|
||||
open, its state is unknown, or the zone is recovering. During those periods the
|
||||
base and extended layers do **not** learn, so window events cannot inflate `loss`
|
||||
or shift `bias`.
|
||||
|
||||
`vent_wind_dir` is bounded by `vent_wind` (|vent_wind_dir| ≤ vent_wind), so the
|
||||
combined wind term never goes negative: a leeward window still ventilates.
|
||||
|
||||
Wind direction is meteorological: the direction the wind comes **from**, degrees
|
||||
clockwise from north. A window's azimuth is the direction its outside faces. Wind
|
||||
from the azimuth blows straight at the window (cos = 1); wind from behind the
|
||||
building gives −1. Angle differences wrap around north correctly.
|
||||
|
||||
## Priors, bounds and confidence
|
||||
|
||||
| Coefficient | Prior | Bounds | Prior worth |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| loss | 0.002 | 0 … 0.04 | as in earlier versions |
|
||||
| heat | 0.045 | 0 … 0.25 | as in earlier versions |
|
||||
| bias | 0 | −0.06 … 0.06 | as in earlier versions |
|
||||
| internal | 0 | 0 … 0.5 | 20 samples at 0.4 kW |
|
||||
| couple:j | 0 | 0 … 0.05 | 200 samples at 1 °C difference |
|
||||
| vent_natural | 0 | 0 … 0.2 | 20 samples at opening 1, 15 °C difference |
|
||||
| vent_wind, vent_wind_dir | 0 | 0 … 0.03 / ±vent_wind | 20 samples at 4 m/s |
|
||||
| vent_gust | 0 | 0 … 0.03 | 20 samples |
|
||||
| vent_cross | 0 | 0 … 0.1 | 100 samples |
|
||||
| recovery | 0 | 0 … 0.5 | 20 samples at 0.5 °C deficit |
|
||||
|
||||
New effects start at 0: no effect is assumed until the data shows one. Learning is
|
||||
recursive least squares with exponential forgetting (about 3.5 days of samples),
|
||||
a covariance bound that stops windup during long periods without excitation, and
|
||||
outlier rejection above 0.8 °C per 5 minutes.
|
||||
|
||||
Each coefficient reports:
|
||||
|
||||
* `confidence`: the share of its information that comes from data rather than the
|
||||
prior (0 = prior only);
|
||||
* `std`: its standard error, using a running estimate of the unexplained noise;
|
||||
* `samples`: how many accepted samples actually exercised it;
|
||||
* `identified`: at least 30 exercising samples and confidence ≥ 0.8.
|
||||
|
||||
A coefficient can move without being identified. Example from the tests: two rooms
|
||||
whose temperature difference stays fairly steady cannot separate exchange between
|
||||
them from each room's bias; the learner finds a positive coupling but correctly
|
||||
reports it as not identified.
|
||||
|
||||
## Learning conditions
|
||||
|
||||
A zone learns from the interval between two polls only when:
|
||||
|
||||
* the polls are 4.5–5.5 minutes apart, the relay held one state throughout and the
|
||||
radiator-lag estimate is known within 0.1 (for example ~32 minutes after an HA
|
||||
restart);
|
||||
* the outdoor source did not change and the zone used the same sensors at both
|
||||
polls;
|
||||
* for the extended layer, every source in the zone is settled and every adjacent
|
||||
zone was usable;
|
||||
* for the ventilation layer, every window state in the zone is known.
|
||||
|
||||
No experiments are run and the boiler is never switched to gather data: everything
|
||||
is learned passively.
|
||||
|
||||
## Forecasts
|
||||
|
||||
Forecasts simulate all zones together, step by step, over the MPC horizon (60–180
|
||||
minutes):
|
||||
|
||||
* **Weather:** held at current values.
|
||||
* **Electrical heat:** the variable part fades towards baseline with a configurable
|
||||
half-life (default 30 minutes; 0 = stops now), and the room keeps following it with
|
||||
its response time. A gaming PC drawing 600 W now is not assumed to run on for two
|
||||
hours.
|
||||
* **Windows:** an open window is assumed to stay open for a configurable time
|
||||
(default 15 minutes), then close; the zone then recovers.
|
||||
* **Relay:** the candidate plan being evaluated.
|
||||
|
||||
For the plan search the step is compiled into exact per-zone coefficients (every
|
||||
term is linear in the temperatures and the lag), which keeps the 180-minute search
|
||||
fast on a Raspberry Pi.
|
||||
|
||||
Plan forecasts are **counterfactual** while Generic Thermostat controls the relay:
|
||||
they describe what would happen under the MPC's proposed plan.
|
||||
|
||||
## Validation
|
||||
|
||||
The Forecast Error sensors score forecasts that are valid for comparison with
|
||||
measured temperatures. At every poll the model parameters are frozen; 15, 30, 60
|
||||
and 120 minutes later all zones are replayed from that poll using the relay,
|
||||
electrical heat and window history that actually followed (outdoor temperature held
|
||||
at its start value), and compared with the readings. The base layer and a
|
||||
no-change forecast are scored on exactly the same spans:
|
||||
|
||||
* `mae`, `bias`: the full model's error;
|
||||
* `persistence_mae`, `skill`: against assuming no change;
|
||||
* `base_model_mae`, `improvement_vs_base`: against the base layer alone. A feature
|
||||
that does not improve this should be switched off (for example the gust term).
|
||||
|
||||
Results on synthetic apartments (the tests; these check the method, not real-world
|
||||
accuracy):
|
||||
|
||||
| Scenario | 60-min error, full | base | no change |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Office, UPS 200 W + 400 W gaming sessions, thermostat cycling | 0.031 °C | 0.182 °C | 0.40 °C |
|
||||
| Bedroom, 15–20 min ventilation every 4 h, wind and recovery | 0.026 °C | 0.218 °C | 0.52 °C |
|
||||
| Two adjacent rooms, true exchange 0.01 | 0.024 °C | 0.037 °C | 0.29 °C |
|
||||
|
||||
In the ventilation scenario, the same data without the window configured produced
|
||||
a −0.013 °C/5 min cooling bias and an 11 % inflated boiler coefficient, which is
|
||||
the contamination the separate ventilation layer prevents.
|
||||
|
||||
## Limitations
|
||||
|
||||
* One temperature per zone: walls and air are not separate states. The recovery
|
||||
term approximates the air warming back after ventilation.
|
||||
* Response times (electrical heat, recovery) are configured, not learned. Compare
|
||||
settings with `improvement_vs_base`.
|
||||
* Coupling between zones heated by one boiler is weakly identifiable; it is shrunk
|
||||
towards 0 and usually reported as not identified.
|
||||
* Natural and wind ventilation terms both scale with the opening; with little wind
|
||||
variation their split is uncertain even when their combined effect is accurate.
|
||||
* Forecasts hold weather constant and use one scenario for electrical heat and
|
||||
windows; no forecast uncertainty band is computed yet.
|
||||
* Window sensors with a permanently unknown state keep their zone out of learning;
|
||||
disable such a window.
|
||||
Reference in new issue
Block a user